Dropping into the chair, Bill sighs, "sorry I'm late." I had stayed after hours due to Bill's hectic schedule, and I was happy to cut him some slack. "No problem,” I say, "long day?" "We are still short-handed," he mumbles, "and the holiday traffic is unbearable; I miss the pandemic days." I laugh, and Bill seems to come out of the fog that had enveloped him laughing out loud too. "You know what I mean." I do. Bill is a truck driver.
I'm often asked about the state of the economy, "how do you keep track of it all?" My general response is, "I count trucks. Box trucks are generally moving goods to market, and flat beds are capital improvement." It's an oversimplification, to be sure, but enough to keep the conversation moving forward. Bill's as busy as he's been since I've met him, which bodes well overall, specifically for him financially and generally for the area's economy at least.
"I'll stay busy right up until I'm replaced." He says, totally catching me off guard. My friend has never mentioned trouble with his business, so I ask. "What's up?" "I'm going to be replaced by driverless trucks." "When, tomorrow?" "Eventually." Bill then spends the next ten minutes giving me the low-down on the scuttlebutt floating between the drivers. Finally, he says he hangs with the notion of remote-piloted trucks. The vision Bill shares with me is so different than anything I expected I couldn't help but ask more questions.
Bill's vision is reasonably straightforward. First, companies with existing trucks will retrofit them with remote piloting capabilities. Then, warehouses will hold truck drivers who will pilot these 80,000 pound 18 wheelers down freeways as they do now, only from a remote position. Pretty much the way an army drone in movies is flown.
I'm slightly shocked, but I must ask, "Isn't that dangerous?" Another ten-minute lecture on the knuckleheads Bill has to contend with daily. "Humm," I say, that's considerably different from how I would expect the transition to occur.
Granted, no one has a crystal ball, especially not me; however, I expect the driverless truck driving revolution to scale down, not up. I mean slower, smaller, not bigger, or faster. It's doubtful the public will allow uncrewed trucks to occupy the same blacktop, especially at the same speeds. When speed ceases to be the issue and 24/7 replaces driver logs, I see a separate lane or, more likely different routes altogether.
Electric tractors pull a load from one terminal to another like trains. The local deliveries will initially be (human) hand-delivered; however, they will arrive via shorter hops than a train, making them more efficient. Electric boxes will pull the loads from point A to point B, and many of these tractor-type boxes will need to be available if the couple that towed a trailer behind an electric truck for 2700 miles is any indication. The couple had to stop every 100 miles to recharge. [1] Switching an electric tractor out while the depleted one recharges will be the only option early in the transition.
We didn't talk about many more nuanced issues facing an industry in transition. However, each will need addressing before the renegade, unpiloted, self-driving trucks are turned loose on highways. I assured my friend Bill that he would probably be a long way down his own road before being put out to pasture by uncrewed electric tractors.
Written August 21, 2022
Reference:
[1] [Couple Towed Trailer Behind $80,000 Electric Truck, Had to Stop Every 100 Miles on 2,700-Mile Trip (westernjournal.com)](https://www.westernjournal.com/couple-towed-trailer-behind-80000-electric-truck-stop-every-100-miles-2700-mile-trip/?utm_source=facebook)