Earlier this month, I was asked by a small group of new [^1] employees at our firm to conduct a short [^2] Zoom conference call on how I use my personal knowledge management system [^3] to help me make decisions. [^4] Although the call was "off books," it carried a considerable amount of proprietary information, prohibiting me from directly quoting my presentation; however, I thought the general ideas were good enough for an introductory blog article on foresight.
Foresight - Definition
NOUN
* the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or be needed in the future:
* "he had the foresight to check that his escape route was clear" [^5]
I'm not a fan of predicting, primarily because predictors tend to become more outlandish with their claims over time and are highly susceptible to hindsight bias. [^6] I do, however, like the term "Inference," which provides a more accurate description of at least what I hope to achieve by thought and study.
Inference - Definition
NOUN
inferences (plural noun)
* a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning:
"researchers are entrusted with drawing inferences from the data."
* the process of inferring something:
"his emphasis on order and health, and by inference cleanliness" [^7]
Unfortunately, "Inference" doesn't have the spark, flash, flicker, or flare that the term "foresight" invokes, so the blog essay's title remains. However, it is comforting to note that "inference" is our brains' default setting, especially while reading. [^8] Our brain constantly pulls required additional knowledge from our memory to make connections between the various points within the text. [^9] We rely significantly on our level of "working memory capacity" [^10] when attempting to hold all the relevant details in our brains at once. When that capacity is reached [^11], having a functioning personal knowledge management system gives us the ability to "offload" the information to a stable medium [^12] for further review or ready to trigger connections at a later date. [^13]
E.R. Haas asks this simple question regarding retrospection and foresight. "How efficient could you be if, knowing everything you do now, you could do yesterday over?" [^14] I find the implications of this question fascinating, and although Mr. Haas is concerned about efficiency in time management, there are other reverberations to consider. I'll list two before we move on first if I receive an unexpected call from a client [^15] regarding a situation. Should I consider being proactive in my contact with clients in similar circumstances? Second, as I discover "interesting" news items, commentary, or insightful suggestions, for my industry, [^16] is it likely to interest others in my company? [^17]
Most of us work and live in environments where drawing conclusions and making decisions based on incomplete knowledge is expected. In 2007 after making "one of several trips together to Irag," authors Hoekstra and Harman wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal entitled *The Limits of Intelligence.* The article detailed how a senior intelligence official wrote her assessments. First, divide a single page into thirds. Second, in the first block, write what we know; third, write what we don't know; fourth, write what we think it means. Sounds simple enough; however, the authors are quick to point out that "actually, it's very hard." [^18]
The assessment process might prove problematic, especially in the what we don't know category, because honestly, we don't know what we don't know. However, we should have a pretty good idea of what we know, and often writing those thoughts out help us define the line between what we know and specific elements of the unknown. The third section of this paper identifies what we think it means. More importantly, we should determine what we believe should be done about what we know in light of the gaps in our knowledge.
Keep the one-page summaries for review; update them as needed; keep asking the question, "if, knowing everything you do now, and you could do yesterday over?" What would you do differently? What are the subtle small items that went unnoticed? Were simple diagnoses accepted without question? [^19] Should I have given a stronger response to a weak diagnosis? [^20] These and other questions will help keep you grounded, mindful, and, most importantly, willing to struggle against the unexpected. [^21] The willingness to grapple with and even thrive in constant change with poise amid ambiguity is the ticket to keeping our sanity in a rapidly changing landscape. [^22]
Written November 30, 2022
Footnotes:
[^1]: "new' ish" employees; in other words, the employees were not brand new to the firm. Therefore, this was not an "onboarding" call but a call to discuss the first downturn many had never experienced in the business cycle.
[^2]: 30-minutes that turned quickly into 45-minutes
[^3]: Zettelkasten
[^4]: No small ask.
[^5]: [foresight definition - Search (bing.com)](https://www.bing.com/search?q=foresight+definition&form=ANNTH1&refig=c2725ecbacff48aabc1568e4922862b1)
[^6]: "Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism. The bias refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that had already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place." (“Hindsight Bias.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 20 Mar. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias.)
[^7]: [inferences definition - Search (bing.com)](https://www.bing.com/search?q=inferences+definition&form=ANSPH1&refig=121db53246ca434299151b137ff75793&pc=U531)
[^8]: McPherson, Fiona P.hD. (2018). Effective Notetaking, 3rd edition; Wayz Press. p.17.
[^9]: Ibid p.17.
[^10]: Ibid p.16.
[^11]: A relatively low threshold for some of us.
[^12]: Rock (tablets), precious metals (plates), papyrus (Egyptian), paper, or silicon (computer storage).
[^13]: Heylighen, F., & Vidal, C. (2009). Getting Things Done: The Science behind Stress-Free Productivity. Brussels: ECCO-Evolution, Complexity, and Cognition research group. p.19.
[^14]: ThinkTQ Organize workbook day 25. ([ThinkTQ- The Home of Intentional Excellence](https://thinktq.com/index.cfm))
[^15]: However, it could also be a friend, co-worker, or family member.
[^16]: Again, it could be family, friends, or community.
[^17]: Levy, M. (2011). Accidental genius: Using writing to generate your best ideas, insights, and content. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. Location. 2090.
[^18]: Hoekstra, P., & Harman, J. (2007, December 10). The Limits of Intelligence. Retrieved September 18, 2020, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119724593112918777
[^19]: Weick, Karl E., and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe. Managing the Unexpected: Resilient Performance in an Age of Uncertainty. Second ed., Jossey-Bass, 2007. p.1.
[^20]: Ibid p.8.
[^21]: Ibid. 103.
[^22]: Gelb, M. (2004). How to think like Leonardo da Vinci: Seven steps to genius every day. New York, NY: Delta Trade Paperbacks. p.150.